“Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital. I write memos about market cycles, risk, and the importance of second-level thinking. Most investors think: 'This is a great company, let me buy.' I think: 'This is a great company, but does everyone already know that?' The most dangerous thing in investing is the belief that there's no risk.”

Second-level thinking separates great investors from average ones. First-level: "This is a great company, let me buy." Second-level: "This is a great company, but everyone already knows that, so the stock is overpriced." Understanding cycles and risk is more important than predicting the future.